Sam Darnold surprised everyone with a passing masterclass in Week 1 and will now take on his former team in the Minnesota Vikings’ home opener. Can he keep the ball rolling or will the San Francisco 49ers’ much more stout defense spoil his hot start?
We break down the matchup in our 49ers vs. Vikings predictions and free NFL picks below.
49ers vs Vikings prediction
My best betAaron Jones Over 2.5 receptions (-135 at BetMGM)
My analysisAaron Jones started the second chapter of his career with a strong showing last week, tallying 109 total yards and a touchdown en route to the Minnesota Vikings’ 28-6 win last week. This week, he hopes to put up another strong performance against a team that bounced him from the playoffs three times in his career.
Despite those losses, Jones has had individual success against the San Francisco 49ers, particularly through his receiving work with the highlight being his nine receptions for 129 yards in the 2022 Divisional Round. In fact, Jones has logged 3+ catches in all but one of his last five games against the Niners.
Additionally, as stout as this Niners defense has been against the run over the years, it’s been poor through the air against the position. Their 5.3 receptions allowed per game to opposing running backs last year ranked fifth-worst, and they allowed six total catches to Jets running backs in Week 1 — five to Breece Hall alone.
He cashed this prop in Week 1 and without Jordan Addison this week, Sam Darnold may lean on him even more.
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49ers vs Vikings same-game parlay
Aaron Jones Over 2.5 receptionsGeorge Kittle Over 50.5 receiving yardsBrock Purdy Over 234.5 passing yards
+320 at BetMGM
Another player who should shine is George Kittle. The Vikings were below average against tight ends last year, allowing the 12th-most receptions to the position. That isn’t nearly a large enough reason to take Kittle, but there are other factors in play here as well.
Brandon Aiyuk is still working his way up to full-game speed following his offseason holdout but more importantly, Deebo Samuel may be leaned on more in the run game given Christian McCaffrey’s injury and any potential silent punishing of Jordan Mason for his inadvertent disclosure of Kyle Shanahan’s potential under-reporting of said injury.
An easy pairing with that is Brock Purdy’s passing yards at 234.5, a mark he nearly hit last week (231) while playing against a much more impressive Jets’ defense and during a blowout that allowed him to ease up late in the game.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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49ers vs Vikings odds
49ers vs Vikings live odds
49ers vs Vikings opening odds
- Spread: San Francisco -6.5 | Minnesota +6.5
- Moneyline: San Francisco -290 | Minnesota +235
- Over/Under: Over 46 | Under 46
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
49ers vs Vikings spread and Over/Under analysis
- Minnesota’s home-field advantage is widely considered one of the best in the league, but they went 2-6 against the spread last year — tied for the second-worst mark. The year prior, the Vikings were 4-6 ATS at home.
- San Francisco was tied for the third-best away ATS record last year at 6-3. The Niners have gone 17-12 ATS on the road across the last three years combined, including the playoffs.
- The 49ers had the fourth-highest rate of Overs last year at 60% (12-8). On the road, however, they went just 5-4 O/U. Minnesota was 3-5 O/U at home last season but had gone 8-2 to the Over the previous year.
